Out-of-School Rates by Education Level and Region: UNESCO GEM 2026
UNESCO estimates that 273 million children, adolescents and youth were out of school in 2024. The total includes 79 million of primary school age, 64 million of lower secondary age and 130 million of upper secondary age.
Global Out-of-School Statistics
The 2026 report uses modelled estimates for 2024. Report year and observation year are not interchangeable.
Out-of-School Population by Education Level
Upper secondary school-age youth account for almost half of the global total.
Children and Youth Out of School, 2024
Modelled global population in millions by official education-level age group
The three values sum to the reported global total of 273 million. Level shares shown elsewhere are page-level calculations from these published counts.
Chart analysis
- 130 million upper secondary school-age youth were out of school, the largest population among the three levels.
- Upper secondary age accounts for 47.6% of the 273 million total.
- Primary school-age children account for 79 million, or 28.9% of the total.
- Lower secondary school-age adolescents account for 64 million, or 23.4%.
- The upper secondary population is 51 million larger than the primary school-age population.
- The counts refer to official age groups, not only to students who entered a level and later left it.
Out-of-School Rates and Population by Education Level
The rate uses the population in the official age range for each education level as its denominator.
| Education level | Population group | Out of school | Share of total | Out-of-school rate | Reference year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary | Children of primary school age | 79 million | 28.9% | About 11% | 2024 | UIS–GEM model |
| Lower secondary | Adolescents of lower secondary school age | 64 million | 23.4% | About 15% | 2024 | UIS–GEM model |
| Upper secondary | Youth of upper secondary school age | 130 million | 47.6% | About 31% | 2024 | UIS–GEM model |
| Combined primary and secondary ages | All three official age groups | 273 million | 100% | About 17% | 2024 | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
Table analysis
- The out-of-school rate rises from about 11% at primary age to 31% at upper secondary age.
- The 20-point primary-to-upper-secondary difference is measured against separate age-group populations.
- Upper secondary age has both the highest rate and the largest out-of-school population.
- The 79 million primary figure includes children who never entered school, entered late or were outside education when observed.
- The 130 million upper secondary figure does not mean that all 130 million entered upper secondary education and then dropped out.
- Shares of the 273 million total are page-level calculations rounded to one decimal place.
- The combined rate is not calculated by averaging 11%, 15% and 31%; each age group has a different population denominator.
Regional Concentration of the Out-of-School Population
Published regional shares show where the global population is concentrated without treating a regional share as a regional rate.
Regional Distribution at Upper Secondary School Age
Share of the 130 million upper secondary school-age youth who were out of school in 2024
The regional percentages are published shares of the global upper secondary-age out-of-school population. They are not upper secondary out-of-school rates within each region.
Chart analysis
- Central and Southern Asia contains about 46% of the global upper secondary-age out-of-school population.
- Sub-Saharan Africa contains about 28%.
- The two regions together account for about 74% of the upper secondary-age total.
- Applying the published shares to 130 million gives page-level estimates of about 59.8 million in Central and Southern Asia and 36.4 million in sub-Saharan Africa.
- The remaining SDG regions account for about 26%, or approximately 33.8 million.
| Education coverage | Region or regional group | Global share | Approximate population | Measure type | Reference year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All three age groups | Sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia | About 75% | About 204.8 million | Published share; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| All three age groups | Other SDG regions combined | About 25% | About 68.3 million | Residual share; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| Primary school age | Sub-Saharan Africa | About 50% | About 39.5 million | Approximate published concentration; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| Lower secondary school age | Sub-Saharan Africa | About 50% | About 32.0 million | Approximate published concentration; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| Upper secondary school age | Central and Southern Asia | About 46% | About 59.8 million | Published share; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| Upper secondary school age | Sub-Saharan Africa | About 28% | About 36.4 million | Published share; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
| Upper secondary school age | Other SDG regions combined | About 26% | About 33.8 million | Residual share; page-level population calculation | 2024 |
Table analysis
- About three quarters of the 273 million global total is concentrated in two SDG regions.
- The combined 75% share corresponds to approximately 204.8 million children, adolescents and youth.
- Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for about half of the global primary-age and lower-secondary-age out-of-school populations.
- Central and Southern Asia has the larger published share at upper secondary age, at about 46%.
- Regional population shares should not be read as the percentage of each region’s own school-age population that is out of school.
- Approximate populations are page-level calculations using rounded UNESCO shares and rounded global totals.
- The table does not construct unpublished values for every SDG region.
Out-of-School Rate by Country Income Group
Income-group estimates reveal a wide separation between low-income and high-income education systems.
Combined Out-of-School Rate by Income Group
Primary and secondary school-age population, 2024
Income groups follow the classifications used in the UNESCO GEM analysis. Values describe rates within each income group.
Chart analysis
- The low-income group rate is 36%, compared with 3% in the high-income group.
- The low-to-high-income difference is 33 percentage points.
- The low-income rate is 16 points above the lower-middle-income rate.
- The lower-middle-income rate is 12 points above the upper-middle-income rate.
- The income-group pattern is ordered, but it does not describe variation among countries inside each group.
| Income group | Combined rate | Difference from global rate | Population movement since 2015 | Reference year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low income | 36% | +19 percentage points | Out-of-school population increased by 29% | 2024 | UNESCO GEM |
| Lower-middle income | 20% | +3 percentage points | Broadly flat in the published aggregate outside low-income countries | 2024 | UNESCO GEM |
| Upper-middle income | 8% | −9 percentage points | Broadly flat in the published aggregate outside low-income countries | 2024 | UNESCO GEM |
| High income | 3% | −14 percentage points | Broadly flat in the published aggregate outside low-income countries | 2024 | UNESCO GEM |
| World | About 17% | 0 percentage points | Out-of-school population increased by 3% | 2024 | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
Table analysis
- The combined rate in low-income countries is more than twice the global rate.
- The high-income rate is 14 percentage points below the global estimate.
- Low-income countries are the only income group for which the report highlights a large aggregate population increase since 2015.
- A higher rate and rapid growth in the school-age population can occur at the same time.
- Income-group averages do not establish a rank for every country inside a group.
- The combined rate covers three official age groups and does not describe pre-primary or tertiary participation.
Global Trend Since 2000
The global rate fell rapidly before 2015 and then remained close to the same level while the population count moved upward.
Combined Global Out-of-School Rate, 2000–2024
Selected reference points for primary and secondary school-age children and youth
The selected points show the long-run decline before 2015 and the broad global plateau that followed.
Trend analysis
- The combined rate fell from 27% in 2000 to 17% in 2015.
- The 2000–2015 change was a decline of 10 percentage points.
- The rate remained around 17% between 2015 and 2024.
- The stable rate did not prevent the global out-of-school population from increasing after 2015.
- A stable percentage can produce a larger population count when the relevant school-age population grows.
| Period or year | Measure | Value | Long-run direction | Coverage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Combined out-of-school rate | 27% | Starting reference point | Primary through upper secondary official age groups | UNESCO GEM |
| 2015 | Combined out-of-school rate | 17% | 10-point decline from 2000 | Primary through upper secondary official age groups | UNESCO GEM |
| 2024 | Combined out-of-school rate | About 17% | Broadly stable since 2015 | Primary through upper secondary official age groups | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| 2000–2015 | Out-of-school population change | −33% | Declined | Global population count | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| 2015–2024 | Out-of-school population change | +3% | Increased | Global population count | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| 2015–2024 | Low-income out-of-school population change | +29% | Increased | Low-income country aggregate | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| 2017–2024 | Global population sequence | Seven consecutive annual increases | Increased each year | Global population count | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
Table analysis
- The strongest global movement occurred before 2015, when the population count fell by 33%.
- The population count then rose by 3% through 2024.
- The global rate and global count followed different directions after 2015.
- The 29% increase in low-income countries was much larger than the 3% global increase.
- Seven consecutive increases in the global count led to the 273 million estimate for 2024.
- The selected historical rate points do not represent an annual series.
Out-of-School and Completion Measures by Level
Out-of-school rates and completion rates answer different questions and are not mathematical opposites.
Out-of-School Rate and Timely Completion Rate, 2024
Separate global indicators shown on the same percentage scale
The two series use different reference populations and definitions. Their values should not be added or subtracted to construct a residual category.
Chart analysis
- Primary education has the lowest out-of-school rate and the highest timely completion rate.
- Upper secondary education has the highest out-of-school rate and the lowest timely completion rate.
- The timely completion rate declines by 27 points from primary to upper secondary.
- The out-of-school rate rises by about 20 points across the same levels.
- A person may be enrolled below the expected level and therefore be in school without completing the expected level on time.
- Late entry and repetition help explain why the two indicators do not form exact complements.
| Coverage | Completion measure | Primary | Lower secondary | Upper secondary | Reference year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | Timely completion | 88% | 78% | 61% | 2024 | GEM VIEW model |
| World | Ultimate completion | 92% | 82% | 64.5% | 2024 | GEM VIEW model |
| Low-income countries | Timely completion | 60% | 37% | 20% | 2024 | GEM VIEW model |
| Low-income countries | Ultimate completion | 71% | 46% | 25% | 2024 | GEM VIEW model |
| World | Timely completion in 2000 | 77% | 60% | 37% | 2000 | GEM VIEW model |
Table analysis
- Global timely completion increased from 77% to 88% in primary education between 2000 and 2024.
- Lower secondary timely completion increased from 60% to 78%.
- Upper secondary timely completion increased from 37% to 61%, a 24-point rise.
- Ultimate completion exceeds timely completion at every level because some learners finish several years after the expected age.
- The global timely-to-ultimate gap is 4 points in primary, 4 points in lower secondary and 3.5 points in upper secondary.
- In low-income countries, the corresponding gaps are 11, 9 and 5 points.
- Only 20% of youth in low-income countries complete upper secondary education within the timely reference window.
- The low-income ultimate upper secondary estimate is 25%, showing that late completion raises the measure but leaves a wide completion gap.
Out-of-School Population by Sex
Global totals are close, but regional, country and education-level patterns can differ from the global balance.
| Sex | Out-of-school population | Share of global total | Difference from girls | Reference year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boys | 140 million | 51.3% | +7 million | 2024 | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| Girls | 133 million | 48.7% | Reference group | 2024 | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
| Both sexes | 273 million | 100% | Combined total | 2024 | UNESCO GEM 2026 |
Table analysis
- Boys account for 140 million of the global total, compared with 133 million girls.
- The population difference is 7 million.
- Page-level shares are 51.3% for boys and 48.7% for girls.
- The global totals do not show whether a particular country or region has a gap disadvantaging boys or girls.
- Sex-disaggregated data are more widely available than disaggregation by wealth, location or disability.
Conflict-Affected Data Adjustment
Humanitarian information indicates that standard model estimates miss part of the population excluded by abrupt conflict-related disruption.
| SDG region | Countries in supplementary review | Country count | Measurement issue | Reference year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-Saharan Africa | Burkina Faso; Mali; Somalia; South Sudan; Sudan | 5 | Abrupt participation changes and disrupted data collection | 2024 | UNESCO GEM humanitarian review |
| Northern Africa and Western Asia | Lebanon; State of Palestine; Syrian Arab Republic | 3 | Displacement, school disruption and incomplete administrative reporting | 2024 | UNESCO GEM humanitarian review |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | Haiti | 1 | Rapid disruption not fully represented by long-run model patterns | 2024 | UNESCO GEM humanitarian review |
| Eastern and South-Eastern Asia | Myanmar | 1 | Interrupted enrolment reporting and population displacement | 2024 | UNESCO GEM humanitarian review |
Table analysis
- Half of the countries in the supplementary review are located in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Three are in Northern Africa and Western Asia.
- The approximate 13 million adjustment is reported for the ten countries collectively.
- The selected report summary does not allocate the 13 million total to individual countries or regions.
- The undercount arises because a model based on long-run patterns may not capture sudden changes during conflict.
- The 273 million headline estimate should therefore be treated as a modelled baseline rather than a complete count of every excluded learner.
Interpretation of the 2024 Estimates
The indicators describe participation, progression and completion through separate statistical measures.
Rate and population can move differently
The combined rate remained near 17% after 2015 while the out-of-school population increased. Population growth can raise the number excluded even when the percentage is unchanged.
Upper secondary carries the largest count
Upper secondary school-age youth represent 47.6% of the 273 million total. This group also has the highest global out-of-school rate, at about 31%.
Transition becomes more restrictive by level
The movement from primary to lower secondary and then to upper secondary introduces new distance, cost, examination, work and household constraints. Their prevalence differs across education systems.
Regional shares and regional rates differ
A region may hold a large share of the global out-of-school population because it combines a large school-age population with an elevated rate. A global population share does not provide the region’s own rate.
Completion continued to rise
Global completion rates increased after 2000 even while the out-of-school rate later stalled. Repetition rates fell by 62% in primary and 38% in lower secondary education over the long period reported by UNESCO.
Late completion remains visible
Ultimate completion exceeds timely completion, especially in low-income countries. Late entry, repetition and over-age enrolment can keep learners in school below the level normally associated with their age.
National patterns remain diverse
Regional and income-group averages combine countries with different starting points, population paths and data coverage. They should not be used as substitutes for country estimates.
The 2030 distance remains wide
Using the average pace observed since 2000, the GEM Report projects that 95% global upper secondary completion would be reached around 2105. This is a completion projection, not an out-of-school population forecast.
The out-of-school indicator includes people in the official age range who are not enrolled in pre-primary, primary, secondary or higher education. It can include those who never entered school, entered late, left education or could not continue to the next level. A dropout measure follows learners who were previously enrolled and subsequently left.
Source and Methodology
The out-of-school rate is the proportion of the population in the official age range for a given education level that is not enrolled in pre-primary, primary, secondary or higher education. Administrative enrolment records require a separate school-age population denominator. Household surveys offer an alternative measure of attendance but differ in timing and sampling. The UIS–GEM model combines available evidence to improve continuity across countries and years.
Regional population estimates marked as page-level calculations apply rounded published shares to rounded global totals. They are included to show approximate scale and are not replacements for the underlying UIS regional series. Population shares, out-of-school rates, enrolment rates and completion rates use different denominators.
UNESCO GEM 2026 is the publication reference, while the headline estimates describe 2024. The 273 million figure is modelled and may exclude at least 13 million additional children and youth affected by conflict-related data gaps. Regional shares should not be interpreted as regional rates. Completion rates are not the inverse of out-of-school rates, and the comparisons do not establish causality between income, region, policy conditions and participation.